After nearly 18 months of war, the conflict in Sudan is intensifying with the army ramping up airstrikes and mobilising allied fighters following the end of seasonal rains. The offensive is aimed at strengthening its position before a likely surge by the rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
This escalation is expected to worsen the already dire humanitarian situation, where famine has been confirmed, and over 10 million people, roughly a fifth of the population, are displaced, the highest number globally. U.N. agencies have struggled to deliver aid.
“There won’t be a decisive breakthrough,” a senior Western diplomat, who spoke anonymously due to political sensitivities, told Reuters.
“We expect increasing fragmentation, with more armed groups getting involved, complicating the overall situation.”
While the RSF has largely held the upper hand, the army launched its most significant offensive to date in Khartoum last week, advancing over a key bridge after skipping U.S.-led talks in Switzerland.
Former rebel groups and volunteers from displacement camps in Darfur have banded together to defend al-Fashir, the army’s final stronghold in the western region, from repeated RSF assaults.
Army sources revealed that for months the military has been restocking weapons such as drones and warplanes, while also training new volunteers, in preparation to bolster their position ahead of any potential talks.
In recent days, residents of Khartoum and its neighboring cities, Omdurman and Bahri, have reported an increase in air bombardments by the army, utilizing more drones and fighter jets than before.
The army has been leveraging its air superiority at the end of the rainy season to target RSF-controlled areas in Khartoum, Darfur, and El Gezira state.
However, with the dry season approaching and roads becoming more accessible, the RSF’s stronger ground forces are expected to gain the upper hand.
On Monday, the RSF released a video with fighters promising a “hot winter” for their opponents in Sennar, where rains had previously slowed their advance.
Witnesses from both Sennar and the capital reported intense clashes on Thursday.
As the conflict escalates in Sudan, both sides have bolstered their military capabilities, aided by foreign backers, according to diplomats and analysts.
Battle in Khartoum
The conflict in Sudan, which began in April 2023, escalated as the army and the RSF vied to secure their power and wealth ahead of a political transition toward civilian rule and elections.
The RSF, rooted in the Janjaweed militias that once helped the government suppress a Darfur rebellion, quickly took control of large parts of Khartoum, consolidated its hold on Darfur, and captured El Gezira state to the south.
Earlier this year, the army made gains in Omdurman with the help of Iranian drones but stalled until its surprise offensive last week.
This attack came just after General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the army’s commander, told the U.N. that the RSF must withdraw and disarm for peace to be achieved.
The army now controls the strategic Halfaya bridge, establishing a foothold in Bahri, and has advanced across another key Nile bridge despite fierce resistance, according to military sources and witnesses.
Darfur Siege Intensifies
The RSF has laid siege to al-Fashir for months, a city overcrowded with 1.8 million residents and displaced people.
Activists and diplomats fear ethnic violence if the city falls, similar to the brutality in other parts of Darfur attributed to the RSF and its allies. According to witnesses, the RSF bombarded large sections of the city while the army responded with air strikes.
Ground combat has been led by non-Arab former rebel groups and displaced volunteers, who fight to protect their families. The situation has worsened humanitarian conditions in Darfur’s camps, where disease and starvation spread.
Aid remains scarce despite promises from both sides to improve access, with little progress in diplomatic efforts to curb external backing for the war.
USAID’s Isobel Coleman noted that both sides rely on foreign support, believing it will tip the balance in their favor.
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