Somalia’s government is attempting to slow the withdrawal of African peacekeepers, warning of a potential security vacuum, according to documents seen by Reuters.
Neighbouring countries are concerned that resurgent al Shabaab militants could seize power.
The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) was scheduled to withdraw by Dec. 31, with a smaller new force expected to replace it.
In a letter last month to the acting chair of the African Union Peace and Security Council, Somalia’s government requested a delay until September for the withdrawal of half the 4,000 troops scheduled to leave by the end of June. This letter has not been reported before.
Previously, in a joint assessment with the AU in March, reviewed by Reuters, the government recommended that the overall withdrawal timeline be adjusted “based on the actual readiness and capabilities” of Somali forces.
The joint assessment, mandated by the U.N. Security Council, cautioned that a “hasty drawdown of ATMIS personnel will create a security vacuum.”
“I’ve never been more concerned about the direction of my home country,” said Mursal Khalif, an independent member of parliament’s defense committee.
According to four diplomatic sources and a senior Ugandan official, the European Union and the United States, the main funders of the AU force in Somalia, have sought to scale back the peacekeeping operation due to worries about long-term financing and sustainability.
Discussions over a new force have been challenging, with the AU initially advocating for a stronger mandate than Somalia preferred, according to three diplomatic sources.
A heated political dispute could result in Ethiopia withdrawing some of its most seasoned troops.
Requests for comment from Somalia’s presidency and prime minister’s office went unanswered.
Mohamed El-Amine Souef, AU special representative to Somalia and head of ATMIS, mentioned that there is no set timeline for concluding negotiations but emphasised that all parties are committed to reaching an agreement that ensures sustainable peace and security.
“The AU and Somalia’s government have stressed the importance of a conditions-based drawdown to avoid any security vacuum,” he told Reuters.
Later on Thursday, the Peace and Security Council is scheduled to meet to discuss the drawdown and the subsequent mission in Somalia.
With the drawdown ongoing and approximately 5,000 troops out of the total 18,500 having left last year, the government maintains optimism.
It has articulated that the new force should be limited to 10,000 troops and should prioritize tasks such as securing major population centers.
Rashid Abdi, an analyst with Sahan Research, a Nairobi-based think-tank focused on the Horn of Africa, suggested that the call for a smaller force likely aligns with the views of nationalists who oppose a significant foreign presence in Somalia.
Stakeholder concerns
Uganda and Kenya, both contributors to the departing mission, share concerns as well. Henry Okello Oryem, Uganda’s state minister of foreign affairs, expressed doubts about the long-term military capabilities of Somali troops despite intensive training efforts.
“We want to avoid a scenario where we have to retreat, similar to what happened in Afghanistan,” he told Reuters.
Oryem acknowledged Kenya’s acceptance of the drawdown requested by the U.S. and EU, while underscoring the need to address the concerns of countries with troops in Somalia.
During a press briefing in Washington last month, Kenyan President William Ruto warned that a withdrawal that ignores ground conditions could lead to “terrorists seizing control of Somalia.”
Two years ago, a military offensive in central Somalia initially gained control of significant areas from al Shabaab.
In August, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamed announced his plan to “eliminate” the powerful al Qaeda faction within five months.
However, shortly thereafter, al Shabaab launched a counter-attack and recaptured the town of Cowsweyne.
According to reports from a soldier, an allied militiaman, and a local resident, the insurgents killed numerous soldiers and beheaded several civilians accused of aiding the army.
“In April, Ahmed Abdulle, a militiaman from a clan in central Somalia, expressed that this event saddened Somalis but emboldened al Shabaab,”
The Somali government has never disclosed the death toll from the battle in Cowsweyne, nor did it respond to requests for information regarding casualties for this story.
“There were enough troops in Cowsweyne, over a battalion, but they lacked organization,” stated Issa, a soldier who fought in the battle there last August.
Since Ethiopia’s invasion in 2006, which toppled an Islamist-led administration but sparked a persistent insurgency resulting in tens of thousands of deaths, Somalia’s security has relied heavily on foreign support.
According to a study by Brown University last year, the U.S. has allocated over $2.5 billion in counterterrorism assistance since 2007.
This figure excludes undisclosed military and intelligence expenditures related to activities such as drone strikes and deployments of American ground forces.
Since 2007, the EU has contributed around $2.8 billion to ATMIS and its predecessor. Additionally, security assistance has been provided by Turkey, Qatar, and other Middle Eastern countries.
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