The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC’s) daily oil production will slip below 27 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2024.
Oil industry analysts project that international oil prices are likely to hover around $80 a barrel in 2024.
The predictions factor in expectations of weak global growth limiting demand, while geopolitical tensions may offer some support.
The recent departure of Angola from OPEC contributes to a market share decline for the organization, reaching levels last seen during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The country’s crude output clocked in at 1.15 million barrels per day in November, a sharp decline from 1.88 million barrels per day in 2017, one year after it joined OPEC thanks in large part to underinvestments in its aging, deep-water oil fields.
Despite challenges, OPEC aims to regain market share by 2045, forecasting increased global oil demand driven by growth in India, China, Africa, and the Middle East.
India has been tipped to replace China as the main driver of global oil demand growth, thanks mainly to a rapidly expanding population.
Further, the country’s transition to renewable energy is expected to be much slower than China’s with the country recently backing coal-fired electricity generation.
However, sustaining supply cuts and mitigating geopolitical risks pose ongoing uncertainties in the oil market.
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