How the Fate of 120,000 Armenians Hang in the Balance After a Ceasefire Deal – A Humanitarian Crisis and a Geopolitical Quagmire
One of the main sources of tension in Nagorno-Karabakh is the ethnic and cultural identity of its inhabitants. The majority of the population are ethnic Armenians, who practice Christianity and have strong ties with Armenia. However, the region is also claimed by Azerbaijan, a predominantly Muslim country with Turkic roots. The conflict between the two countries has historical, political, and religious dimensions, and has been influenced by the involvement of external powers, such as Russia, Turkey, Iran, and the United States.
The recent escalation of violence in Nagorno-Karabakh was triggered by a series of border clashes in July 2020, which resulted in several casualties on both sides. The situation deteriorated further in September 2020, when a full-scale war broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the control of the region. The fighting lasted for six weeks and caused thousands of deaths, injuries, and displacements. The war ended with a ceasefire agreement brokered by Russia on November 10, 2020, which stipulated that Azerbaijan would retain most of the territories it had captured during the war, while Armenia would withdraw its forces from the remaining areas. The agreement also established a Russian peacekeeping mission in Nagorno-Karabakh to monitor the security situation and facilitate the return of refugees.
The ceasefire agreement was met with mixed reactions from both sides. Azerbaijan celebrated its military victory and territorial gains, while Armenia mourned its losses and faced political turmoil. Many Armenians felt betrayed by their government and by Russia, their main ally and arms supplier. Some Armenians also refused to leave their homes in Nagorno-Karabakh, fearing for their safety and identity under Azerbaijani rule. Meanwhile, some Azerbaijanis expressed dissatisfaction with the presence of Russian troops in their lands, and demanded more concessions from Armenia.
The Armenian leadership in Nagorno-Karabakh confirmed on Friday that no agreement has been reached with Azerbaijan regarding security guarantees following a recent Azerbaijani offensive. This situation has left the future of Nagorno-Karabakh and its 120,000 ethnic Armenian residents in uncertainty. Azerbaijan seeks to integrate the region, while ethnic Armenians fear persecution and have accused the international community of abandonment.
Russia’s Defense Ministry delivered over 50,000 tonnes of food to Nagorno-Karabakh, the first such delivery from Armenia since the Azeri military’s recent success in forcing separatist local leaders to surrender. The Russian statement suggests that food aid was also sent by Azerbaijan. Baku proposes amnesty for Karabakh Armenian fighters who give up their arms, but disagreements persist.
Karabakh Armenians, referring to their territory as the Republic of Artsakh, state that no concrete agreements have been reached. The situation is dire, with shortages of food, electricity, fuel, and a growing refugee population.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has claimed victory and vows to guarantee the rights of ethnic Armenians while asserting Azerbaijan’s control over the region. However, the fate of Karabakh’s fighters and the shape of a comprehensive agreement remain uncertain.
Armenia and Azerbaijan, both former Soviet states, have fought two wars over Karabakh since its 1991 collapse. The region is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but has enjoyed de facto independence with Armenia’s support for the past three decades.
Given the history of conflict between the two countries, many Armenians fear the uncertain future. They express hope for support from Russian peacekeepers and fear the potential for genocide if peacekeepers are absent.
Azerbaijan’s claim of victory adds another layer to Nagorno-Karabakh’s tumultuous history, marked by the influence of various powers, including Persians, Turks, Russians, Ottomans, and Soviets. This situation could also impact the balance of power in the South Caucasus region, with Russia, the United States, Turkey, and Iran vying for influence.
Meanwhile Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan prepares for a possible influx of displaced people into Armenia but emphasizes the desire to preserve Karabakh’s population. Russia, with nearly 2,000 peacekeepers in the region, faces accusations of insufficient support from some Armenians.
The situation remains tense, with some Armenians expressing their frustrations through protests and acts of vandalism, while thousands of Karabakh Armenians are effectively under siege at the local airport.