This year, the leaders of Egypt and Somalia have forged a close alliance, raising concerns in Ethiopia about potential regional instability. The recent arrival of two Egyptian C-130 military planes in Mogadishu marks the start of a military agreement signed during the Somali president’s visit to Cairo in August. This deal could see up to 5,000 Egyptian soldiers joining a revamped African Union (AU) force by the end of the year, with another 5,000 possibly deployed separately.
Ethiopia, a crucial ally of Somalia in the fight against al-Qaeda-linked militants, has expressed its alarm over this development, especially given its ongoing tensions with Egypt regarding a major dam on the Nile River. Ethiopian officials have stated they cannot remain passive while others threaten regional stability.
In response, Somalia’s defense minister urged Ethiopia to cease its complaints, implying that the current diplomatic tensions are a result of Ethiopia’s own actions.
Underlying Conflicts: Ethiopia and Somalia
The rift between Ethiopia and Somalia largely stems from Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ambitions for access to the sea after losing it during Eritrea’s secession in the 1990s. In January, Abiy signed a controversial agreement with Somaliland to lease a coastal strip for a naval base, which could pave the way for Ethiopia to recognize Somaliland’s independence. Somalia, which views Somaliland as part of its territory, has condemned this move as aggressive.
Djibouti, concerned about the implications for its port-dependent economy, has offered Ethiopia “100%” access to its ports to ease tensions—a notable shift from previous reluctance.
Despite diplomatic efforts from Turkey, Somalia insists it will not compromise until Ethiopia acknowledges its sovereignty over Somaliland.
Ethiopia’s Reaction to Somalia’s Moves
The situation escalated when Somalia announced that Ethiopian troops would not be included in the upcoming AU force, a significant change given the historical presence of Ethiopian soldiers in Somalia to combat al-Shabab militants. Somalia’s prime minister also indicated that Ethiopian troops stationed under bilateral agreements would need to withdraw unless Ethiopia renounced its port deal with Somaliland.
Ethiopia perceives this as a dismissal of the sacrifices made by its military and a move that could expose it to jihadist threats, particularly with Egyptian troops potentially stationed near its border.
The Nile Dam Dispute
The tensions are further complicated by the ongoing dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Egypt claims threatens its water supply. Ethiopia insists the dam is crucial for its development, aiming to provide electricity to millions. Diplomatic efforts to resolve the dam’s operation have stalled, heightening tensions.
Potential Regional Instability
Egypt views its military collaboration with Somalia as a historic opportunity to counter Ethiopia regarding the dam. Analysts warn this situation could lead to low-scale conflicts if the two nations’ forces confront each other in Somalia.
Both Ethiopia and Somalia are grappling with internal challenges—Ethiopia with regional rebellions and Somalia recovering from decades of civil war. Experts caution that further conflict could exacerbate migration issues and destabilize the broader region.
As global trade routes through the Red Sea hang in the balance, nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are keenly observing developments, with Turkey poised to mediate in upcoming diplomatic talks scheduled for mid-September.
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