What could have led the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a politically powerful entity that had dominated Ethiopian political landscape for 27 years to civil unrest?
A conflict between the government of Ethiopia and forces in its northern Tigray region has thrown the country into turmoil. The Tigray civil unrest started when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered a military offensive drive against regional political forces in the country. According to the prime minister, the strategic military actions were in response to an attack on a military base housing government troops.
The escalation came after months of feud between Mr Abiy’s government and leaders of Tigray’s dominant political party. A power struggle, an election and a push for political reform are among several factors that led to the crisis the country is witnessing today.
Fighting has been going on since November 2020, destabilising the populous country in the Horn of Africa, leaving thousands of people dead with 350,000 others living in famine conditions.
Eritrean soldiers are also fighting in Tigray for the Ethiopian government. From 1961 until 1991, Eritrea fought a long war of independence against Ethiopia. All sides have been accused of atrocities.
The conflict resumed last week after a five-month lull, with clashes on the ground and air raids over Tigray dashing hopes of peacefully resolving the nearly two-year war, with no military solution to the war in sight. Fighting had been concentrated around the south eastern border of Tigray, with the rebels pushing into the neighbouring Amhara and Afar regions, sending residents fleeing.
Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed accused the Tigray People’s Liberation Front of launching “an invasion in the direction of Wag, Wolqait and our border areas with Sudan [Amhara region]”, west to the site of the most recent clashes. “Our heroic national defence forces are defending this invasion with full preparedness and resolve,” the government communications service said in a statement.
Mr Abiy further stated “Tigray had crossed a “red line. “The federal government is therefore forced into a military confrontation,”. Mr Abiy was the leader of a four-party coalition that governed Ethiopia from 1991, following a civil unrest that saw a military regime ousted from power. Under the coalition, Ethiopia became more prosperous and stable, but concerns were routinely raised about human rights and the quality of democracy.
Eventually, discontent morphed into protest, leading to a government reshuffle that saw Mr Abiy appointed prime minister. Mr Abiy liberalised politics, set up a new party (the Prosperity Party), and removed key Tigrayan government leaders accused of corruption and repression.
Meanwhile, Mr Abiy ended a long-standing territorial dispute with neighbouring Eritrea, earning him a Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. These moves won Mr Abiy popular acclaim, but caused unease among critics in Tigray. Tigray’s leaders saw Mr Abiy’s reforms as an attempt to centralise power and destroy Ethiopia’s federal system. The feud came to a head in September, when Tigray defied the central government to hold its own regional election. The central government, which had postponed national elections because of coronavirus, said it was illegal.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had authorized his deputy, Demeke Mekonnen, to head a peace committee which began work in July. Before that, Mr Abiy had reportedly sent senior officials to secretly meet the TPLF. In sessions in the Seychelles and Djibouti, it appeared that agreement was reached that Ethiopian forces would lift their blockade of Tigray, and that Eritrea would withdraw the troops it had sent to support the Ethiopian government and the two sides would open full talks in the Kenyan capital Nairobi, hosted by President Uhuru Kenyatta. The first agenda item would be a permanent ceasefire. Behind the scenes, the USA was strongly backing these talks and was working in partnership with Kenya.