China will seek to persuade 50 African nations at a summit in Beijing this week to increase their imports of Chinese products, such as electric vehicles and solar panels, before Western export restrictions take hold.
In exchange, China is expected to offer more loans and investment. However, African leaders may be cautious, as many are still waiting for China to honour its previous commitment from the 2021 summit to purchase $300 billion in African goods.
African leaders are also expected to seek reassurances on the status of unfinished Chinese-funded infrastructure projects, such as a railway intended to connect the broader East African region.
“The prize is going to go to those countries who have carefully studied the changes in China and align their proposals with China’s new slimmed-down priorities,” Eric Olander, co-founder of the China-Global South Project, noted.
He added that this is a significant challenge for Africa, where “China literacy” remains generally low.
Africa’s largest lender, investor, and trade partner is shifting its focus from large-scale infrastructure projects to advanced and green technologies.
As Western restrictions on Chinese exports approach, Beijing is prioritising sales of electric vehicles and solar panels, areas where overcapacity is a concern, and is working to build production bases in emerging markets.
Recent adjustments to China’s loan conditions for Africa reflect this change, with increased funding for solar farms, EV plants, and 5G Wi-Fi facilities, while support for traditional infrastructure projects like bridges, ports, and railways has decreased.
According to Boston University’s Global Development Policy Centre, China extended 13 loans totalling $4.2 billion to eight African states and two regional banks last year, with about $500 million allocated to hydropower and solar projects.
Geopolitical maneuvering
At the ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Summit on Thursday, President Xi Jinping is anticipated to highlight China’s growing green energy industry to leaders from Gambia, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. Delegates from all African countries, with the exception of Eswatini—due to its lack of diplomatic relations with Beijing—will also attend.
To maintain its influence, the United States has begun hosting African leaders, and countries like Britain, Italy, Russia, and South Korea have also organized Africa-focused summits, acknowledging the region’s potential and its 54 U.N. seats. However, China’s significant role as a financial and trade partner makes its meetings notably impactful.
“There is no other development partner that does that much,” Hannah Ryder, founder of Development Reimagined, an African-owned consultancy, noted.
She questioned whether African leaders can leverage this engagement to ensure that the benefits are more favorable to Africa.
Aligning desires and requirements
China will emphasize increasing trade and securing access to minerals like copper, cobalt, and lithium from countries such as Botswana, Namibia, and Zimbabwe.
However, Beijing may be cautious about making new funding commitments due to recent debt restructuring efforts in Chad, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Zambia since the 2021 summit.
“We are likely to see a continued prudence in terms of financing mega projects,” and suggested that Beijing will focus more on technology transfers.
Yvette Babb, a portfolio manager at William Blair, expressed interest in “how many new finance commitments may come out of this, and how they’re going to deal with existing debt to African countries,” Lina Benabdallah from the Centre for African Studies at Harvard University remarked.
China’s willingness to lend might also be tempered by security issues, such as recent violence involving a PetroChina-backed pipeline in Niger and Benin, and deadly protests in Kenya over tax increases.
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