Unauthorised migration to European Union countries decreased notably during the first eight months of this year. This decline occurred despite rising political rhetoric, increased violence against migrants, and gains by far-right parties with anti-immigration platforms.
However, there has been a surge in migrant arrivals to the Canary Islands, a Spanish archipelago near Africa, which is increasingly being used as an alternative route to mainland Europe.
Irregular migration was a major issue in the European parliamentary elections in June and has influenced recent state elections in eastern Germany, where a far-right party achieved a historic victory.
In response to recent extremist attacks, the German government has announced an expansion of border controls.
What do the figures reveal?
Despite ongoing debates, irregular crossings at the EU’s southern borders, where most unauthorised migration occurs, fell by 35% from January to August, according to preliminary data from the United Nations International Organisation for Migration.
This year, approximately 115,000 migrants, or less than 0.03% of the EU’s population, have entered the EU via Mediterranean and Atlantic routes without authorization, compared to 176,252 during the same period last year. In contrast, over a million people, mostly escaping conflict in Syria, arrived in the EU in 2015.
Data from the EU’s border and coast guard agency Frontex indicates a similar trend: Unauthorised crossings at the region’s southern borders dropped by 39% this year compared to last.
Flavio di Giacomo, spokesperson for the IOM office for the Mediterranean, told The Associated Press, “The emergency is not numerical this year, nor was it last year.”
“Irregular migration is getting way too much attention compared to the scope of the issue and compared to other issues Europe should be tackling, such as climate change,” commented Camille Le Coz, associate director at the Migration Policy Institute in Europe.
The primary route for migrants remains from North Africa across the perilous Central Mediterranean to Italy.
However, this year, approximately 64% fewer migrants have arrived in Italy compared to the same period in 2023, according to IOM and Frontex data.
Experts attribute this decline to the EU-supported crackdowns in Tunisia and Libya, which have resulted in migrants being systematically detained and abandoned in the desert.
The sustainability of this downward trend is uncertain, as smugglers continually adapt to evade border controls. In the Eastern Mediterranean, the second-most popular route, smugglers are using speedboats more aggressively and targeting more distant islands in the central Aegean to avoid detection, according to Greek authorities.
Despite the overall drop in arrivals to Italy, the number of migrants reaching Greece by sea and land increased by 57% during the first eight months of the year, according to U.N. data.
A concerning surge in the Atlantic
Irregular migration from West Africa to the Canary Islands via the Atlantic, the third-most-used route, has more than doubled. As of August 31, over 25,500 migrants, primarily from Mali, Senegal, and other West African countries, had arrived on the islands, according to the U.N.
Many migrants have gone missing along this perilous route, where rough winds and strong currents pose significant dangers.
Several boats carrying only the remains of Malian, Mauritanian, and Senegalese migrants have been found drifting as far as the Caribbean and off Brazil.
Although exact figures are difficult to confirm, the Spanish migrant rights group Walking Borders has reported more than 4,000 dead or missing.
Spanish authorities are particularly concerned about the fall, when Atlantic conditions are most favorable for such journeys.
Despite the dangers, the route continues to attract migrants, now including individuals from Syria and Pakistan.
“There are situations that need to be addressed, like the situation in the Canary Islands,” Le Coz acknowledged.
A crisis of compassion
Adult migrants who reach the Canary Islands typically continue their journey towards the promise of employment and safety in mainland Spain or other northern European countries. However, this is not the case for thousands of unaccompanied minors.
Spanish law mandates that these young migrants be cared for by local authorities, resulting in overcrowded shelters and a political crisis.
Earlier this year, leaders from the Canary Islands unsuccessfully sought assistance from other regions of Spain to share the burden.
In response, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez visited three West African countries to address migration issues.
In Senegal, he and President Bassirou Diomaye Faye signed agreements to create temporary work opportunities and vocational training in Spain for Senegalese nationals. They also agreed to enhance police cooperation.
No simple solutions
Despite current anti-immigrant sentiments, Europe’s aging population, declining birth rates, and labor shortages have heightened the demand for immigrant workers to support pensions and drive economic growth.
As long as migrants lack opportunities in their home countries, their departure will persist, exacerbated by growing instability and conflict in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia that has displaced millions.
“There is no magic deterrence,” Le Coz said. “Migrants end up taking the toll of all of this: They are risking their lives, doing jobs in Europe where they face uncertain legal status for years and are vulnerable to all sorts of exploitation.”
Although efforts like temporary work programs for migrants are underway, they are insufficient.
“That’s one step in the right direction, but this needs to happen at a much larger scale, and they need the private sector to be more involved,” Le Coz added.
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